I THINK ∴ I'M DANGEROUS

stocklib

Within stocklib.tcl are procedures to scrape and analyze tweets for stock data.

  • Stocks are partially vetted:
    • Price Must be at least $10, but not more than $60 per share
    • Volume must average at least 250k shares per day
  • Individual tweets are evaluated for context and confidence.
  • Key phrases are awarded positive and negative points.
  • Tweets are locally cached so twitter's limits (API calls, number of results) can be bypassed.
  • stocks are ranked relative to one another via lower bound of Wilson score confidence interval (95% confidence).

Results

Statistical analysis of 3 months of data shows that 75% of the time, an high value of 0.5% over opening price is seen. Algorithm improvements are pushing closer to 80% success.

Future Goals

Account for volatility and remove stocks with too low of volatility.